Here's what (probably) happened to Amelia Earhart, according to science

Here's what (probably) happened to Amelia Earhart, according to science

There's been a possible breakthrough in the search for her lost plane.

Photo credit: Getty

Published: January 5, 2025 at 8:00 am

One of the most famous pioneers in aviation, Amelia Earhart is best known for becoming the first woman to fly solo across the Atlantic. But her story ended in tragedy in 1937, when her Lockheed 10-E Electra plane disappeared without a trace while she attempted an ambitious round-the-world flight.

Hoping to become the first person to circumnavigate the globe around the equator, Earhart planned a 46,670km (29,000-mile) journey from California across Central and South America, Africa, Australia and finally crossing the Pacific Ocean.

Six weeks into the trip, Earhart and her navigator Fred Noonan, set off from New Guinea towards Howland Island, about 2,735km (1,700 miles) southwest of Honolulu.

Amelia Earhart's Lockheed Electra taking off the runway, the pilot's final flight.

This 20-hour flight was the longest leg of the journey and close to the maximum range of the plane. Despite support from the US Coast Guard, they failed to locate the flat, 6.5km² (2.5 square mile) island in the vast Pacific Ocean and were never seen again.

The US government’s investigation concluded that, after failing to find Howland Island, Earhart’s plane ran out of fuel and crashed into the ocean. But the lack of definitive evidence has spurred wild speculation and there are many theories about what happened.

Amelia Earhart standing by a plane.
In 1929 Amelia Earhart flew in a plane with a crate full of homing pigeons as part of a scientific experiment. - Photo credit: Getty

One of the most popular is that Earhart and Noonan landed on the coral reef around Gardner Island, 650km (400 miles) southeast of their intended destination, where they ultimately died.

Navigational issues may have been to blame for why Earhart and Noonan failed to reach Howland Island. One explanation, known as the Date Line Theory, suggests that Noonan didn’t account for crossing the International Date Line in his calculations.

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He was using celestial navigation, which is based on the position of the Sun, stars and planets. Because the Earth simultaneously rotates on its axis and revolves around the Sun, the positioning of these celestial bodies, relative to the Earth, changes slightly each day. So, it’s important to know the exact date and time to navigate accurately with this method.

Noonan was aware of this effect, but the timing of the flight made the calculations particularly complex. During their flight, they passed midnight local time and Noonan would have needed to adjust his calculations accordingly.

They then flew over the International Date Line, changing the date back again. If Noonan hadn’t noted this second date change, he would have navigated the plane off course, ending up 110km (70 miles) east of Howland Island.

In January 2024, an ocean exploration team from the US, Deep Sea Vision, found wreckage on the seabed that might be Earhart’s plane. They used an underwater drone to sonar scan more than 12,950km² (5,000 square miles) of the Pacific Ocean floor.

The images revealed an object that resembles the shape of a Lockheed Electra, located roughly where the Date Line Theory predicts. The team plans to return to the site to investigate further.

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This article is an answer to the question (asked by George Grainger, London) 'Was Amelia Earhart or her plane ever found?'

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