Turbulence is a normal part of flying, hence the sick bags. But it can be dangerous.
In May 2024, a flight travelling from London to Singapore had to make an emergency landing after hitting severe turbulence over Myanmar. The incident left one man dead from a suspected heart attack and dozens hospitalised.
Days later, turbulence on a flight from Doha to Dublin sent eight people to hospital. An apparent increase in reports like these raises questions about whether turbulence Is increasing or intensifying.
Turbulence happens when abrupt changes in airflow cause a plane to shudder, tilt or lurch erratically. It’s commonly caused by storm clouds, weather fronts, aircraft wakes and air forced upwards over high mountains.
For the most part, these forms of turbulence are well understood and can be forecast and monitored, allowing pilots to avoid them.
A less predictable, and therefore more dangerous, form is known as clear-air turbulence.
Triggered by wind shear at the boundary of two air masses travelling at very different speeds (such as a jet stream and the surrounding air) clear-air turbulence is usually sudden and severe. It can’t be detected by radar and isn’t visible to pilots, which means flight crews can be caught off guard, with no time to switch on the fasten seat belt signs.
That’s likely what happened on the Singapore Airlines flight in May, according to a preliminary report released by Singapore’s Transport Ministry.
Flight data shows that the plane dropped 54m (177ft) in less than a second, slamming those not strapped into their seats into the ceiling panels above them. More than 100 passengers needed medical treatment on landing and approximately 50 were hospitalised.
Meteorologists and aviation experts warn that turbulence will only increase as weather patterns change and intensify due to climate change.
Records show that clear-air turbulence has already increased. In a series of recent studies that analysed more than 40 years of satellite data, scientists from the University of Reading found that instability-generating wind shear in the jet stream has increased by 15 per cent since 1979, and that severe clear-air turbulence on some of the world’s busiest flight routes rose by 55 per cent during the same period.
By 2050, the authors warn, pilots can expect to encounter at least double (perhaps even triple) the severe turbulence that they do today, if current warming trends continue.
While these numbers are alarming, the absolute risk to any one passenger is still very small.
According to the US Federal Aviation Administration, only 163 people were seriously injured by turbulence between 2009 and 2022 – and nearly 80 per cent of those were cabin crew. Of the more than 800 million domestic and international flights that take off from the US each year, only around 5,500 encounter severe turbulence.
Most injuries happen to those not wearing seatbelts, so the single most important step you can take to stay safe is to buckle up whenever you’re seated.
This article is an answer to the question (asked by Dominique Hamilton, London) 'Is climate change making turbulence worse?'.
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