BBC Focus Magazine

[MikeG]

A Dutch company is trying to start a venture with private funding to establish a colony on Mars. The catch is, the flight will be one-way, so if the novelty of being a pioneer wears off after a few months (or a year or two), tough cookies. This venture has the backing of a Theoretical Physics Nobel price winner, Geraard t' Hooft

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/upshot/mars ... 11042.html

[M Paul Lloyd]

You know what, Thirty years ago I would have jumped at the chance to do this, really I would have.
The Falklands conflict was in full swing and I really didn't have very high expectations for myself or the future of the human race at all.
Plus NASA, (despite having had Apollo taken from them just as it was starting to get interesting and getting lumbered with the utterly wasteful and ultimately even more expensive Space Shuttle in the process) had filled our heads with plans for colonising Mars, despite the, then, certainty that it was little more than a barren, airless rock little better than the Moon.

However twelve months later and my life had changed beyond recognition and such thoughts got trampled under the distractions of marriage, mortgage, kids an job.
Now I must admit that apart from being way too old I have plenty to keep me happy here on the home world.

But in all honesty, putting domestic commitments aside, the opportunity to be a true pioneer, even if I were likely to be dead within a few years?

Yes I would go.

And............ I've said as much.

[MikeG]

If I could be assured that the latest movies could be streamed, I might consider it

[Shadowwolf]

Call me cynical but I think I smell a rat here. You donate their outfit money so that they can organise this endeavour but at the same time you also pay their wages for years, at the end of which there will likely be some reason why the timetable must be pushed back. Or there's simply nothing to show for it all, some models, plans and selection tests barely beyond the drawing board.

I also reckon that the lead time of ten years until the first four permanent colonists is far too brief and simply not feasible. May be sufficient for a short exploratory and return mission but not a permanent base, especially as they don't even have the financial resources going into the project never mind anything else.

The one way nature is also a rather unreasonable demand. Sure you might be required to have a long initial stay but there is little reason that the next ship out cannot be a return vessel for anyone who might wish to leave. This is not the same as pioneers to some other spot on Terra. Sending a mere four people up to a practically dead world to be confined inside a small hab module unable to set foot outside without a large suit all whilst they have extremely constrained existence for years; I don't think that's going to work out well.

The least inspiring thing about it all is how amazingly light on specifics the whole thing is, there's practically nothing there beyond ephemeral aspirations and assurances. Sounds like people looking for other folks to fund their hobby.

As for t' Hooft, undoubtedly gifted in his field but his endorsement of this project is in my opinion little beyond celebrity name dropping; I don't think he actually brings anything to it.

[MikeG]

SW, you sure know how to rain on a parade. You've punched far more holes than I could hope to patch up Once in a while, daydreaming can be fun

On the other hand, wasn't it Elon Musk of SpaceX fame who stated a similar time frame for Mars settlement as these guys? Maybe there's an agreement we arent aware of.

[M Paul Lloyd]

I'm inclined to agree with Mr.S, despite my initial enthusiasm for the principle (which I'm sure is simply a rehash of an old NASA plan anyway) it is just an organisation looking to make money but I somehow doubt that the sort of people with the money to invest in such a project are the ones who will want to actually go to Mars anyway.
After all pioneers have generally been the poor and disenfranchised of society who seek a better life.
If you are doing ok already, why leave?

[MikeG]

...
After all pioneers have generally been the poor and disenfranchised of society who seek a better life.
If you are doing ok already, why leave?

Agreed on that point MPL. If the clause weren't one way, there would be no hesitation on my part. Anything up to 10 years would find me enthusiastic and willing.

[Shadowwolf]

On the other hand, wasn't it Elon Musk of SpaceX fame who stated a similar time frame for Mars settlement as these guys? Maybe there's an agreement we arent aware of.

I think so, their site makes frequent mention of SpaceX's Falcon rocket and the in development heavy lift variant as the surface to orbit workhorse and launch system. Of course SpaceX probably expects to be paid for the service and is not in it for the endeavour alone.

After all pioneers have generally been the poor and disenfranchised of society who seek a better life.

True, many have had a very compelling reason to influence their departure though that may be offset by the lure of virgin territory that not only is nothing like anywhere else on Terra, but is an entirely new world. However, other pioneer / colonist efforts involved groups far larger than four with more supplies and more space in an at least habitable place and still many failed.

SW, you sure know how to rain on a parade.

Well every silver lining has a cloud, I just point it out

Incidentally here's another, the transit ship doesn't exist even as a design plan yet, it's merely a series of 'expects' and 'can be built by', thus not even a build cost can be hazarded and this thing is supposed to be built in orbit and launched in ten years? They don't even have the orbital construction facility never mind the ship itself. Even the supply and hab landers don't actually exist even though they are expected to be larger versions of the current Dragon capsule, and these are timetabled to be getting sent to Mars in about four years. So, even if we accept the premise of their mission as reasonable the timetable is wildly and unrealistically short, especially as they don't even have the money to fund the project to get it running.

The more I look at it the more incredibly naive it looks I'm sorry to say.

[M Paul Lloyd]

Just wondering if anyone here has seen the film 'Total Recall' in my opinion a rather second rate adapatation of Phillip K Dick's 'We Can Recall it For You Wholesale' but it serves the purpose well enough?
Thing is it features an underground Martian colony that has an almost believably cruel hierarchical system of government that could quite possibly result from any colonisation effort no matter how high minded and well intentioned it might have been when first concieved on Earth.

Also an awful lot of early American settlers, having survived the arduous Altlantic crossing and hard work establishing settlements all succumbed to starvation and disease within a few short years.

I wonder if such failures will be seen as reasonably acceptable on a planet 50 million miles away??

[Lateralman]

“Choice of crew.” At the end of the day, we all have a one-way ticket. What does it matter to those at the end of the line if Mars is the last stop?

[Shadowwolf]

We do all die but many of us would possibly prefer some level of comfort and freedom in our waning years rather than restricted to small spaces with limited provisions and the same few faces. Though as the privileged few hoover up all the wealth whilst they ruin the economy that might be how we end our days on Terra anyway.

I wonder if such failures will be seen as reasonably acceptable on a planet 50 million miles away??

I'd reckon so, if you choose to go then you've also chosen the risk. Those back on Terra may find it unacceptable but that's why they didn't sign up to go and they don't get to decide the acceptable risk for others.

As for Total Recall - which they're remaking I believe - it was okay, but I think the colony would have to be significantly larger and largely self-sufficient before anyone would think of ceding from Terran control. Given their set-up I'd wager that's a long way down the road.

[Willxx]

any opportunity to go into space would be enough for me - the chance of going to another planet even better, if its one way - well I'm past my best here so why not?

[M Paul Lloyd]

Perhaps this could be one solution to the problem of what to do with all the active people of retirement age?

[Shadowwolf]

At four every two years methinks that might be a tad slow.

any opportunity to go into space would be enough for me - the chance of going to another planet even better, if its one way - well I'm past my best here so why not?

Oh I'm sure there would be no shortage of takers even for a long to permanent stay, however, they probably at least initially seek those in prime condition what with all the heavy work in cumbersome suits that will be required. That probably leaves many of us outside the qualifying criteria to be colonists and I don't expect that would change until a fairly large colony was in place and large scale mass transport available; so we'd be or near shuffling off the mortal coil by that stage.

However, I don't think the permanent / long term residency is a major issue yet because given their situation as it stands and their rosy timetable, no one is going to get an opportunity to go anywhere.

[MikeG]

They state on their website that they envisage this as a Big Brother type of opportunity to help with the funding. Maybe they should consider convicted murderers, seeing as the trip is one way. The murderers will come from different cultures and continents, which will give them the chance to set up their own "Hunger Games" scenario. This should send their their ratings through the roof and solve any financial considerations they might have.

[M Paul Lloyd]

Penal Colonies............................... Sounds familiar

[Shadowwolf]

They state on their website that they envisage this as a Big Brother type of opportunity to help with the funding.

Be hard to generate interest like that I think, I mean the initial series aside the rest existed by running highly strung, bombastic, fevered egos deliberately selected to be antagonistic towards each other and the resulting train wrecks of their dysfunctional interactions. A format that required the contestants to be progressively more over the top than the last lot and eventually even that had a limit beyond which it was just highly annoying kidults looking for attention.

That's not going to happen here, in fact the training - which is all they could follow in such a way - would be quite devoid of the theatrics of BB, possibly even rather dull. Even a selection process would be quite pedestrian as any "zany" 'hey everyone look at me' types are probably not what's sought. With the training being for years I don't see anyone following it that long and I'd be doubtful if trainees would want to be followed almost 24/7 by cameras as they do have a lot of study to do without constant interruptions for a show no one is watching.

Maybe they should consider convicted murderers, seeing as the trip is one way.

I'm pretty sure I've seen that movie

Using convicts never works out well just look at..., I'd best not, might be uncharitable of me and peddling a worn cliche

[M Paul Lloyd]

Apparently things got a bit 'tense' when the waste disposal system failed on the Mars 500 project.

The efforts expended in isolating, diagnosing and (eventually) rectifying, what might seem like a very mundane problem here on Earth, took on a whole new dimension in a 'sealed' environment where a backed up toilet took on potentially life threatening proportions.

The people behind the experiment believed they had considered all possible eventualities and had even planned all sorts of simulated emergencies over which they had full control but this one totally unexpected event threw the whole project into turmoil.

I suspect that space plumbing has a manual all of its own now though.

I can't see it making it into a Hollywood script any day soon but that really is the sort of mundane thing thing that's going to separate the adults from the idiots in outer space, and that's a good years worth of worry before you even get there.

[Shadowwolf]

I can't see it making it into a Hollywood script any day soon...

Well, "Captain! we have a core breach in progress, estimate five minutes until complete reactor containment failure and the ship is incinerated," sounds much more dramatic and exciting than, "Captain! the loo's backed up and it's beginning to smell like s***e down here."

[M Paul Lloyd]

I guess you have to have experienced a blocked khazi at sea to appreciate the full and awful magnitude of it all.