BBC Focus Magazine

[M Paul Lloyd]

And even more annoying, in my opinion, that they are talking about 'all the money they will need' (from us) based upon predictions derived from unproven systems.

[Flakkarin]

Ok! Well, here I am in Canada, perhaps at least a little settled in. Unfortunately, that climate modelling course isn't until next 'semester', but rest assured I will be paying extra attention and asking lots of questions when it does come around.
In the mean time I'm doing an interesting course this semester about ice dynamics and glacier hydrology. We've only done one lecture so far, but the subject of sea level change did come up. It's actually quite interesting - while scientists have been observing mountain glaciers disappearing for a long time, it was actually only quite recently that they realised anything was happening to the big polar ice caps - they simply didn't believe there could possibly be any affect on such large systems. But they do actually seem to showing alarming signs of instability (think Larsen B). Of course, some people taking this alarm to the alarmist extreme, and start to predict how much sea level rise there would be if the West Antarctic ice sheet completely collapsed! I must assure you that more sensible scientists are working on more sensible predictions, and more importantly, feasible time scales for all this.
But, there's still a lot we don't know about how the larger ice sheets behave. they're very complicated beasts, and our knowledge is restricted by the fact that they were very difficult to monitor before satellites were around!

But well, that was just my first lecture, hopefully I can learn a bit more about what we DO know about glaciers !

[M Paul Lloyd]

Excellent news Flakkarin, glad you are settled in safe and well. Please try to keep us posted with anything you might feel is of relevance, I for one will be most interested to read it.

[The Beige Avenger]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE58D20U20090914

Check it out...

[Shadowwolf]

Most interesting Mr Avenger.

"Those models could be used to predict the melting of the ice. The suggested melting starts around 900 ppm (parts per million)," he said, a level he believes could be reached by the end of this century, unless serious emissions cuts were made.

Me wonders where those insisting the tipping point is now or already past got their info

[Liam Sheppard]

It seems plausible to me tha 'global warming' could trigger an ice age..a'la 'the day after tomorrow'

correct me if i'm wrong (I know you will, and mostly I am)

If desertificationan and rising sea levels made much of the developed and populated world uninhabitable.
could we not just move to Greenland, Antartica and Siberia where there seems to be massive amounts of land that would be habitable... allbeit having no ifrastructure for many years heh heh

[M Paul Lloyd]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE58D20U20090914

Check it out...

The only thing that worries me about this is that they fail to mention what the actual level of atmospheric CO2 was before the cooling event occurred. As I understand it the greenhouse effect has only been observed in prehistoric times when concentrations were some twenty times greater than current levels.

I accept that CO2 can have a greenhouse effect I only wonder at what point it actually has a major climate changing influence?

Also it is worth noting that we are currently in a minor warm period of a major glaciation (ice age) time frame and as such we are actually well overdue for some serious, and entirely natural, climate change.

It could conceivably go either way.

[BrIDo]

Hello, just joined and read all the posts with great interest - it is good to know that there are others like myself who are willing to challenge the 'accepted' drivel we are force fed re climate change. I have not very much to add to this debate but as an amateur weather nut, I have the following observation:-
I have compiled official met office weather data for my area from 1921 to the present, nearly 90 years worth of good data.

I have 2 main conclusions (admittedly relevant perhaps only to my area (South Wales coast) but interesting none the less)

1/ That there is nothing new under the Sun - it has meteorologically speaking all happened before.

2/ That whilst there is undoubtedly a very slight upward trend in the MEAN temperature (derived from the daily average highs and average lows) this upward trend is shown to be due not to any increase in the average maxima (indeed these are in the decline) but due entirely to the average minima showing a relatively large increase.

In other words, it appears that generally whilst our days are ceasing to warm as much as they have done, our nights are not cooling as much as they have done and that the very slight increase in mean temperature is due entirely to this.

I propose that if this local trend were found to repeat itself in other locations then the global mean temperature increase could be due to this phenomenon.

Have any readers any ideas as to how or why this might be? (Apart from CO2 levels and/or cloud cover preventing the normal night-time radiation escape) It seems that even on clear, high-pressure winter nights, there is less cooling going on than there used to be.

Very interesting indeed.

I wonder about the fesability of a few of us conducting a similar study in our own areas and comparing the results? Or perhaps we could target areas of interest and assign them to those interested in participating? You never know, perhaps it would merit a page in the magazine.

[M Paul Lloyd]

It might well indeed Brido.

I have been looking at the MET office website in some detail recently and have not come across an archive section as such (which I think is a pity) and indeed I note that the forecast (after some last minute updating) vanishes from the main page as soon as it happens. However various local newspapers from around the country might prove a more suitable source of such information, although accessing them may be problematic unless they are available on-line of course.
Of course you have to allow for the fact that such forecasts may often have been very different from what actually happened on the day.

[energymap]

earth's climate is changing at a rapid speed. this is the time we need to take some disciplinary action in order to make the earth strong as far as weather condition is concerned.

Global warming

[Liam Sheppard]

what does that mean energymap?

[M Paul Lloyd]

Hello and welcome to the forum energymap.

Whilst I agree that the Earth's climate is changing I do not know of any frame of reference by which it can be said that such change is in any way more rapid than it has ever been? Indeed it can be said that for almost all of recorded time the climate has changed quite dramatically and I fully expect it will do so again many times.

However if you have any actual evidence to show that their really is a problem, and what 'disciplinary actions' you have in mind, please feel free to express them here.

[nemisis39]

indeed welcome along energymap

would these disciplinary action include the green tax's e.t.c or is there something new you have in mind maybe only using lights heating gas in your home during certain hours, limited use of cars transport e.t.c, supermarkest only selling energy saving light bulbs (sorry thats already on its way in isn't it ). Indeed we do need to look with some ernest at our issue's with our planet, but as i have said before, if we do we could be doing more harm than good, especially if this supposed global warming is actualy just the natural progression this planet is takeing. In that case we shouldnt be taking steps to solve the problem we should be making plans to live with it.

[M Paul Lloyd]

You know we have to face the fact that energymap might not be a real person at all.

[Shadowwolf]

It does rather look like a post only to provide a space for the link to the energymap site; though I may be shown otherwise.

[Liam Sheppard]

i was about to say... I dont think energy map has anything good to say.. but you beat me to it, hence my previous post...

They made ONE post... Just another over zealous fanatic who thinks they are on to something and have to tell the world to be 'on to it' too, without knowing exactly what they are on, or how to explain it....

sorry I've had a guinness.. I use the word 'a' in the loosest possible term

[Void]

I believe climate change is man made because carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas.
.

Is climate change man made, or is it naturally occurring? I believe that it is a combination of both. Of course carbon dioxide is man made (apart from the quantity coming from volcano eruptions) so man is obviously to blame. But with regards to green house gasses there is another threat that is naturally occurring. This is METHANE, the substance produced so elegantly by cows is found to be much more harmful than carbon dioxide and produced mostly by decaying matter. So basically every forest, Dump and cow herd is a factory for some mass produced hurt! Does man have a part in it ? Absolutely; but we have accomplices.

http://www.communicationagents.com/sepp/2005/02/01/global_warming_methane_could_be_far_worse_than_carbon_dioxide.htm

[M Paul Lloyd]

Anyone recall that 'hockey stick' graph that sparked of the whole 'global warming is related to rising CO2 levels' idea in the first place?

Well it appears to have been based upon some rather erroneous data.
http://climateresearchnews.com/2009/09/ ... k-is-dead/

[Shadowwolf]

Gah, it just gets worse

[M Paul Lloyd]

I tell you, the real victims of all this will be the environmental science community whose credibility will be seriously undermined by it all this.